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INTEREST ON EXCESS RESERVES - The crisis upended the Fed’s method for controlling its target interest rate, which it previously had done by raising or lowering the supply of scarce reserves in the banking system. In the post-crisis world, the Fed’s expanding balance sheet meant banks were flush with reserves and that the Fed needed a new system. Using powers earlier authorized by Congress, banks are now paid interest on reserves parked at the Fed, creating a baseline for other, market-based rates.
Though also politically unpopular among some lawmakers, the system has largely worked well, with some adjustments, at fixing the federal funds rate within the range set by officials, FORECASTING - The Fed in 2012 began releasing projections each quarter from its governors and reserve bank presidents for economic measures, That first set of forecasts showed median growth for 2014 expected at 3.65 percent, Actual growth was 2.4 percent - the first in a series of forecast misses that vintage cufflinks nyc showed just how poorly the country’s top economic minds were at unraveling how the Great Recession changed the economy..
It didn't matter much to policy at the time - rates were not going to be raised anyway. But it arguably nicked the Fed's credibility as policymakers were continually forced to downgrade their outlook year by year. (Graphic: Fed losses - https://tmsnrt.rs/2GENOUa). NEUTRAL - The neutral rate of interest, blessed with the wonky moniker “R star,” went from being a cornerstone of policy and a fixation of researchers under former Chair Janet Yellen, to a source of confusion under Jerome Powell.
It is important to economic models in trying to assess the point at which the Fed is no longer influencing economic decisions, but holding vintage cufflinks nyc things steady, But consider: policymakers’ first public estimates of the “longer run” federal funds rate ran from 3.75 to 4.5 percent, The most recent, issued this week, were in a completely different range, from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent, Foggy, to say the least, POLITICAL ECONOMY - The Fed ventured into the unknown during the crisis, slashing interest rates to zero and launching a massive asset purchase program, Its oversight since has been intense, with criticism pulling it in all directions depending on which end of Pennsylvania Avenue was speaking the loudest..
Here’s Republican Andy Barr of Kentucky grilling Powell in February: “Your task is to continue to unwind the Fed’s asset purchases, gradually, and predictably return to market-based interest rates, and remove monetary distortions from the economy without producing excessive disruption.”. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has heaped scorn on the Fed for doing just that, calling rate hikes “loco” and asking them to “stop with the 50B’s,” when it comes to the monthly $50 billion balance sheet runoff.
INFLATION - The Fed has yet to formally 'declare victory' on its 2 vintage cufflinks nyc percent inflation target, Even though the pace of price increases has edged toward that goal, it has not convincingly hit or exceeded it in a way officials believe will stick, And the readings of late have been weaker, (Graphic: PCE inflation - https://tmsnrt.rs/2GusFM1), COMMUNICATIONS - The Fed in the post-crisis era has become far more open in how it talks to the public and markets, a plus in an era when it was acting in unconventional ways and needed to maintain public trust..
But that same openness has caused confusion, from the hailstorm of chatter from reserve bank presidents to the misbegotten nature of the “dot plot” of officials’ estimates of where the fed funds rate is heading. The Fed says it isn’t a forecast, but markets read it as such, and have made a parlor sport of guessing which dot is the chair’s, and thus first among equals. Meanwhile, Powell, like his predecessors, has had his stumbles, confounding markets in recent weeks by implying rates would rise fast, then having to dial that back. Just this week the Fed’s projections showed a slowing economy and a slowing set of rate increases, while its statement was a bullish recount of U.S. strength.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S, stocks declined sharply on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s forecast of fewer interest-rate increases in 2019 fell short of investors’ hopes of a more dovish monetary policy, The Dow Industrials .DJI closed at their lowest level since November 2017, The Dow Transports .DJT vintage cufflinks nyc plunged 3.2 percent to confirm bear market territory, down nearly 21 percent from their record high on Sept, 14, The benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX is now down 14.5 percent from its record closing high on Sept, 20, Of its components, 298 have fallen 20 percent or more from their 52-week highs, On the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, more than 2,000 stocks hit 52-week lows on Wednesday..