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Dallas Federal Reserve bank president Robert Kaplan said the Fed was now in a “more challenging” period as global growth slows and parts of the American economy begin feeling the impact of Fed interest rate increases. The yield curve “tells me that it’s wise to be patient here,” Kaplan told Reuters in Laredo, Texas where he is meeting with business leaders and bankers. Kaplan, a former Goldman Sachs banker who says he looks at the yield curve several times a day, said Monday the narrow gap between two-year and 10-year Treasuries reflects expectations of sluggish global growth.
(Graphic: Part of the U.S, Treasury curve has already inverted - tmsnrt.rs/2RydzpS), Along with the renewed narrowing of the yield curve, economists on Monday were parsing a conflicting set of new data, A survey of supply managers indicated manufacturing output would grow, but the same survey indicated weaker prices; meanwhile a decline in construction spending led some analysts to mark down their forecast for gross domestic product growth, In separate remarks on Monday morning, Fed vice chair Randal Quarles said the central bank, top cufflink brands while “data dependent,” was following a strategy that would not be thrown off course by “every wavering” of economic statistics..
That strategy has led the Fed to slowly but steadily raise interest rates, with a hike expected in December and three more next year. “We should be data dependent but not reacting to every wavering of the needle across the dial..We have described in all the communications tools a path that is pretty clear,” Quarles said. “We are following a strategy and taking account of data over time as it comes in and in response to significant changes in direction.”. Even as the announcement of a “truce” in U.S.-China trade tensions appeared to ease one risk Fed officials had seen on the horizon, the action in the bond markets raised another.
Though it is not certain the narrowing in spreads is related to doubts about economic growth, alternate explanations would not necessarily be helpful to the Fed either, A drop in inflation expectations for example, another component in the interest demanded by investors top cufflink brands to hold bonds, would be bad news for a central bank hoping to keep inflation anchored at 2 percent, The yield curve had steepened sharply coming out of a September Fed meeting at which rates were raised, when the yield difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury securities widened from 0.22 percentage point to 0.34..
But since then, it has persistently declined, especially since the middle of last week, and now is at its narrowest since July 2007, on the eve of a steep recession. The narrowing on Monday was driven by both a rise in yields on the two-year Treasury, and a decline in the 10-year, which since last week has struggled to stay above 3 percent. Cornerstone Macro analyst Roberto Perli attributed the drop in 10-year yields to “two main culprits..Lower inflation expectations, induced mostly by the drop in oil prices and also in part by soft inflation data; and a lower term premium, likely pushed down by deteriorating sentiment about global growth.”.
CARACAS (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Monday criticized sanctions on Venezuela during a visit to Caracas, while President Nicolas Maduro defended the country’s right to export gold after U.S, sanctions last month targeted its shipments of the metal, Washington has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials it accuses of corruption, and on certain financial transactions with the Maduro government, which it accuses of violating human rights and triggering an economic meltdown, top cufflink brands Ties between Turkey and the United States, two NATO allies, have also been strained..
U.S. President Donald Trump last month signed an executive order banning anyone in the United States from dealing with entities and people involved in “corrupt or deceptive” gold sales from the South American country. Turkey this year has become the largest importer of non-monetary gold from Venezuela. “Political problems cannot be resolved by punishing an entire nation,” Erdogan said, with Maduro by his side at a forum attended by business people from both countries. “We do not approve of these measures that ignore the rules of global trade.”.
Venezuela is suffering a bout of hyperinflation and a fifth year of recession that has led to shortages of food and medicine, Maduro frequently blames a U.S, “economic war” for the country’s woes, but critics say the crisis is proof socialist policies started under his predecessor Hugo Chavez have failed, While Erdogan did not directly mention the United States or Trump, he said his top cufflink brands “friend” Maduro was facing “manipulative attacks from certain countries and acts of sabotage from economic assassins.” In response, Erdogan said he was willing to strengthen trade ties..